Himesh *
New member
- Messages
- 9
- Points
- 1
Welcome to the giveaway of Control Ultimate Edition. I hope you enjoy it.
Control Ultimate Edition
- Thread starter himesh.1
- Start date
WizardStan
Well-known member
- Messages
- 363
- Points
- 63
If you enter an average of 30 giveaways per day, each with a chance of 1 in 1200, then your expected payoff is one win every 40 days.
WizardStan
Well-known member
- Messages
- 363
- Points
- 63
If there is a 1% chance of something happening, then the statistics average out to 1 win every 100 tries.
If there is a 1/1200 chance of something happening then the statistics average out to 1 win every 1200 tries.
Your math is correct, I want to make clear that all the calculations you did are absolutely correct. You've drawn the wrong conclusion. What you've calculated is the probability of "a very good chance" of winning: the probability of losing X times in a row until the probability of losing approaches 0%. That's not the same as an expected win. According to your math you have an almost guaranteed (99%) chance of winning every 182 days. Technically this is an arbitrary value you've chosen, because there's still a 1% chance of losing. Why not go even better chance of winning? 0.1% chance of losing: 276 days. But you might still lose, so go 0.01% chance of losing: 368 days, a full year. Still might lose. We can keep shrinking our odds of losing day by day but the odds of losing will never reach 0, it is theoretically possible for someone to go their entire life, entering giveaway after giveaway, and never win, because that's how statistics unfortunately work: 99.999% chance of winning is still a 0.001% chance of losing: frighteningly small, but not zero.
That's why I talked about the average success rate, not individual success rates: some people will win something very quickly, within days, or even on their first try, and may win several times in a row. Some people will take weeks, or months. According to the numbers I used (1200 entries per giveaway, 30 giveaways per day) it would all average out to 40 days.
If there is a 1/1200 chance of something happening then the statistics average out to 1 win every 1200 tries.
Your math is correct, I want to make clear that all the calculations you did are absolutely correct. You've drawn the wrong conclusion. What you've calculated is the probability of "a very good chance" of winning: the probability of losing X times in a row until the probability of losing approaches 0%. That's not the same as an expected win. According to your math you have an almost guaranteed (99%) chance of winning every 182 days. Technically this is an arbitrary value you've chosen, because there's still a 1% chance of losing. Why not go even better chance of winning? 0.1% chance of losing: 276 days. But you might still lose, so go 0.01% chance of losing: 368 days, a full year. Still might lose. We can keep shrinking our odds of losing day by day but the odds of losing will never reach 0, it is theoretically possible for someone to go their entire life, entering giveaway after giveaway, and never win, because that's how statistics unfortunately work: 99.999% chance of winning is still a 0.001% chance of losing: frighteningly small, but not zero.
That's why I talked about the average success rate, not individual success rates: some people will win something very quickly, within days, or even on their first try, and may win several times in a row. Some people will take weeks, or months. According to the numbers I used (1200 entries per giveaway, 30 giveaways per day) it would all average out to 40 days.